Schedule

Schedule#

Date

#

Topic(s)

Covered in class

Reading

Unit 1:

Thinking about scale

Week 1

Monday

3/31/25

1

Welcome to STATS 60!

What is statistics all about? What to expect from the course.

Wednesday

4/2/25

2

Thinking about scale

Contextualizing questions and ballpark estimates/Fermi problems

Chapter 5 of “Calling Bullshit”

Thursday

4/3/25

-

Discussion

Fermi problem contest

Friday

4/4/25

3

Cost/benefit analysis; Quiz in class

Cost-benefit analysis: preventative care for heart attacks.

Unit 2:

Probability

Week 2

Monday

4/7/25

4

Intro to probability

Modeling uncertainty. Probability in simple experiments.

Chapter 1 of “Blitzstein and Hwang”

Wednesday

4/9/25

5

Coincidences

How surprising is a coincidence? The birthday paradox.

Thursday

4/10/25

-

Discussion

The Monty Hall game - switch or stay?

Friday

4/11/25

6

Conditioninal probability; Quiz in class

Conditioning: incorporating new information. How dramatically it can change probabilities. P[A|B] is not the same as P[B|A]. Indepdendence.

Week 3

Monday

4/14/25

7

Bayes’ Rule

Bayes’ Rule, false positive tests.

Wednesday

4/16/25

8

Common mistakes in conditional probability

Base rate fallacy, conditioning without context, prosecutor’s fallacy, defense attorney’s fallacy, generalizing from a biased sample

“On the Psychology of Prediction” by Khaneman and Tversky; “Multiple sudden infant deaths – coincidence or beyond coincidence?” “Why are handsom men jerks?”

Thursday

4/17/25

-

Discussion

Conditional probability game show

Friday

4/18/25

9

Data collection day; Quiz in class

Design a survey question and collect data for our next unit!

Unit 3:

Exploratory Data Analysis

Week 4

Monday

4/21/25

10

Reasoning about sports with expectations

Guest lecturer Will Hartog. Some basic statistical models in sports and using probability to make decisions.

Wednesday

4/23/25

11

Data visualization

Common graphical visualizations of data, including pie chart, bar chart, histogram, scatterplot, box diagram, and time series. How to read each. Common visualization traps to watch out for.

Chapter 7 of “Calling Bullshit”

Thursday

4/24/25

-

Discussion

Practice visualization with AI-assisted programming and class data!

Friday

4/25/25

12

Fundamental summary statistics part 1: Central tendency; Quiz in class

Means and averages, median.

Week 5

Monday

4/28/25

13

Fundamental summary statistics part 2: Variability

Standard deviation, variance, quantiles, multi-modal data

Wednesday

4/30/25

14

Same mean, different meaning

Very different data with similar summary statistics—beware! Outliers and robustness.

Thursday

5/1/25

-

Discussion

Friday

5/2/25

15

Fundamental summary statistics part 3: Correlation; Quiz in class

Correlation and trends, scatterplots, regression.

Unit 4:

Correlation and Experiments

Week 6

Monday

5/5/25

16

Sampling, variability, and sample bias

How well does sample data reflect the ground truth? Independent or “random” samples vs. biased samples.

Wednesday

5/7/25

17

Polling and sample averages, part 1: the role of n

Variability decreases with sample size (in class experiment).

Thursday

5/8/25

-

Discussion

Friday

5/9/25

18

Polling and sample averages, part 2: confidence; Quiz in class

Two standard deviations and the Normal/Bell curve.

Week 7

Monday

5/12/25

19

Hypothesis testing and p-values

Statistical framework for testing, p-values

Wednesday

5/14/25

20

Testing for correlation

Goodness-of-fit test

Thursday

5/15/25

-

Discussion

Friday

5/16/25

21

Correlation vs. causation; Quiz in class

Week 8

Monday

5/19/25

22

Observational Studies and Randomized Experiments

Wednesday

5/21/25

23

Potential Outcomes Model

Thursday

5/22/25

-

Discussion

Friday

5/23/25

24

Guest speaker; Quiz in class

~~Monday~~

5/26/25

-

~~MEMORIAL DAY, NO CLASS~~

Unit 5:

Regression and Machine Learning

Week 9

Wednesday

5/28/25

25

Linear regression

Prediction and fitting a model to samples.

Thursday

5/29/25

-

Discussion

Friday

5/30/25

26

Model size/type and expressiveness; Quiz in class

Polynomial regression, relationship between model type and prediction ability.

Week 10

Monday

6/2/25

27

Markov text generators

Wednesday

6/4/25

28

Outtro

Finals week

Monday

6/9/25

Final Exam, location TBA