Schedule#
Date |
# |
Topic(s) |
Covered in class |
Reading |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unit 1: |
Thinking about scale |
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Week 1 |
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Monday |
3/31/25 |
1 |
Welcome to STATS 60! |
What is statistics all about? What to expect from the course. |
|
Wednesday |
4/2/25 |
2 |
Thinking about scale |
Contextualizing questions and ballpark estimates/Fermi problems |
|
Thursday |
4/3/25 |
- |
Discussion |
Fermi problem contest |
|
Friday |
4/4/25 |
3 |
Cost/benefit analysis; Quiz in class |
Cost-benefit analysis: preventative care for heart attacks. |
|
Unit 2: |
Probability |
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Week 2 |
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Monday |
4/7/25 |
4 |
Intro to probability |
Modeling uncertainty. Probability in simple experiments. |
|
Wednesday |
4/9/25 |
5 |
Coincidences |
How surprising is a coincidence? The birthday paradox. |
|
Thursday |
4/10/25 |
- |
Discussion |
The Monty Hall game - switch or stay? |
|
Friday |
4/11/25 |
6 |
Conditioninal probability; Quiz in class |
Conditioning: incorporating new information. How dramatically it can change probabilities. P[A|B] is not the same as P[B|A]. Indepdendence. |
|
Week 3 |
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Monday |
4/14/25 |
7 |
Bayes’ Rule |
Bayes’ Rule, false positive tests. |
|
Wednesday |
4/16/25 |
8 |
Common mistakes in conditional probability |
Base rate fallacy, conditioning without context, prosecutor’s fallacy, defense attorney’s fallacy, generalizing from a biased sample |
“On the Psychology of Prediction” by Khaneman and Tversky; “Multiple sudden infant deaths – coincidence or beyond coincidence?” “Why are handsom men jerks?” |
Thursday |
4/17/25 |
- |
Discussion |
Conditional probability game show |
|
Friday |
4/18/25 |
9 |
Data collection day; Quiz in class |
Design a survey question and collect data for our next unit! |
|
Unit 3: |
Exploratory Data Analysis |
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Week 4 |
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Monday |
4/21/25 |
10 |
Reasoning about sports with expectations |
Guest lecturer Will Hartog. Some basic statistical models in sports and using probability to make decisions. |
|
Wednesday |
4/23/25 |
11 |
Data visualization |
Common graphical visualizations of data, including pie chart, bar chart, histogram, scatterplot, box diagram, and time series. How to read each. Common visualization traps to watch out for. |
|
Thursday |
4/24/25 |
- |
Discussion |
Practice visualization with AI-assisted programming and class data! |
|
Friday |
4/25/25 |
12 |
Fundamental summary statistics part 1: Central tendency; Quiz in class |
Means and averages, median. |
|
Week 5 |
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Monday |
4/28/25 |
13 |
Fundamental summary statistics part 2: Variability |
Standard deviation, variance, quantiles |
|
Wednesday |
4/30/25 |
14 |
When means mislead |
Very different data with similar summary statistics—beware! Multi-modal data, skew, outliers, and their effects on summary statistics. |
|
Thursday |
5/1/25 |
- |
Discussion |
Analyze summary statistics of data with AI-assisted programming! |
|
Friday |
5/2/25 |
15 |
Fundamental summary statistics part 3: Correlation; Quiz in class |
Correlation and trends, scatterplots, regression. |
|
Unit 4: |
Correlation and Experiments |
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Week 6 |
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Monday |
5/5/25 |
16 |
Sample size matters |
Estimating a quantity with a random sample, large sample size improves accuracy of our estimates. Population vs. sample statistics. Standard deviation of the sample mean. |
|
Wednesday |
5/7/25 |
17 |
The Normal Approximation |
The Normal/Bell curve, confidence intervals, 68-95-99 rule |
|
Thursday |
5/8/25 |
- |
Discussion |
In-class experiment to explore effect of sample size. |
|
Friday |
5/9/25 |
18 |
Sampling and selection bias; Quiz in class |
Uniform samples vs. biased samples. Common sources of selection bias. |
|
Week 7 |
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Monday |
5/12/25 |
19 |
Hypothesis testing and p-values |
Statistical framework for testing, null hypothesis, alternative hypothesis, p-value, type 1 & 2 errors |
|
Wednesday |
5/14/25 |
20 |
Hypothesis testing part 2, multiple testing |
Testing multiple hypotheses, family-wise error rate, p-hacking, Bonferroni correction |
|
Thursday |
5/15/25 |
- |
Discussion |
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Friday |
5/16/25 |
21 |
Testing for correlation; Quiz in class |
Permutation test for correlation coefficient, bootstrap simulation for estimating variability |
Statistical thinking for the 21st century, Chapter 13.3-13.4 |
Week 8 |
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Monday |
5/19/25 |
22 |
Observational Studies and Randomized Experiments |
Observational studies vs. randomized control trials, experimental design |
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Wednesday |
5/21/25 |
23 |
Potential Outcomes Model |
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Thursday |
5/22/25 |
- |
Discussion |
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Friday |
5/23/25 |
24 |
More potential outcomes; Quiz in class |
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~~Monday~~ |
5/26/25 |
- |
~~MEMORIAL DAY, NO CLASS~~ |
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Unit 5: |
Regression and Machine Learning |
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Week 9 |
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Wednesday |
5/28/25 |
25 |
Linear regression |
Prediction and fitting a model to samples. |
|
Thursday |
5/29/25 |
- |
Discussion |
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Friday |
5/30/25 |
26 |
Model size/type and expressiveness; Quiz in class |
Polynomial regression, relationship between model type and prediction ability. |
|
Week 10 |
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Monday |
6/2/25 |
27 |
Markov text generators |
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Wednesday |
6/4/25 |
28 |
Outtro |
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Finals week |
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Monday |
6/9/25 |
Final Exam, location TBA |